A Guide to Election Night for the Non-Political Junkie

By:Terry Mitchell

Even if you are not a political junkie like I am, you will still probably find yourself glued to your TV set on election night. Obviously, you'll be waiting to find out whether President George W. Bush will be elected or if Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts will become our 44th President. Will everything you see and hear that night be interesting? Will it even make sense to you? Well, if all you are interested in is finding out who wins, you may be in for a long and boring night. Volumes of information will be presented that night before a final winner is declared. However, if you know a few things to look for, all of that stuff might make a lot more sense and actually be interesting as well.
For one thing, you need to be aware that there's only going to be a passive emphasis on the national popular vote, i.e., the total amount of votes cast nationally for each candidate. That's because it doesn't determine who wins - the electoral votes do. In every state except Maine, Nebraska, and perhaps Colorado (more on that later), the winner of that state receives all of its electoral votes. Maine awards them by congressional district, with the other two going to that state's overall winner. Nebraska awards its electoral votes proportionally, based on the percentage of the popular vote each candidate receives in that state.
The number of electoral votes each state has is calculated by adding the number of its congressional districts to the number of its senators. The number of congressional districts each state has is based on its population. The more populous states like California and Texas have a lot more congressional districts than more sparsely populated states like Wyoming or Vermont. However, every state has at least one congressional district, no matter how small its population. Every state has exactly two senators. Therefore, every state has at least three electoral votes. In addition to all the states, the District of Columbia is allotted three electoral votes, even though it has no voting members in Congress.
Many people believe the electoral college, the system of casting electoral votes to determine the outcome of the presidential election, is inherently unfair and should be abolished in favor of a system in which the winner is determined purely by the national popular vote. Of course, it would take a Constitutional amendment for that to happen. Therefore, the electoral college is here to stay. Even if such amendment could get the required two-thirds margin in the House and Senate, it would never be able to get the required three-quarters of the state legislatures. There are too many small states that would be staunchly opposed to it, as they feel that the electoral college allows them to be "players" in the presidential election campaign that they would not be in a purely popular vote system. These small states fear that they would be completely ignored by presidential candidates, without the electoral college. I fear that they are right.
Many states will be "called", i.e., a projected winner of that state will be announced, by news organizations as soon as the polls close in those states. This can be done fairly accurately with the use of exit polls, a process by which voters are asked about their decision as they are exiting their polling places. If the exit polling sample alone from a given state shows a clear victory for one candidate, they will call that state as soon as its polls close. If the exit polls show that a given state is too close to call, they will wait until enough of the actual vote count comes in before calling that state. Exit polls are sometimes wrong, though. The most infamous example was Florida in 2000, when it was called for Gore based on exit polling data and some of the actual results. After more of the actual results started coming in, however, the news organizations soon started to realize things might not go in Florida the way they had projected, so they soon retracted their call and the state ultimately went to Bush.
By the way, people who say they never believe exit polls (or political polls in general) will offer two main criticisms of them. The first is: "They've never asked me." In actuality, very few voters are ever contacted by pollsters. Only a very small sample of voters is needed to get a reasonably accurate result, provided it is random enough and varied enough among all demographic groups, geographic areas, etc. To use an analogy that I've often heard, you don't need to drink the whole glass of tea to find out whether or not it's sweet. Just a taste will due, assuming the glass has been stirred properly. The other criticism is: "They ask intentionally misleading and confusing questions." This is quite true of many political polls. However, the main question asked during exit poling is: "For whom did you vote?". I wonder which part of that question people wouldn't understand.
As states are called, their electoral votes are placed into one candidate's column. Also, look for each news organization to utilize a map of the United States, which starts out with each state depicted as white. As a state is called for Bush, its color is changed to red; as a state is called for Kerry, its color is changed to blue; hence, the red states and blue states. Look for Kentucky to be the first state called. That state closes its polls at 6:00 Eastern Time and will almost certainly fall into Bush's column. Once a candidate reaches 270 or more electoral votes, he will be declared the winner of the election, regardless of the total popular votes or how many red or blue states he has earned.
If Bush wins all the states he won in 2000 and no more, he will win by a larger margin (277-261) in the electoral college than he won by last time (271-267). Actually, he could lose one of his smaller states like New Hampshire, without picking up one that Gore won, and still win the election. This is because, based on the 2000 census, the population has shifted a bit and six congressional seats (and therefore the same amount of electoral votes) have shifted from "Gore" states to "Bush" states.
The key states to watch throughout the evening will be the so-called "battleground" states. The candidate who wins the majority of those states will likely win the election. By most estimates, these states include New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Florida, West Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, and New Mexico. Most of the other states are considered to already be in the column of one candidate or the other. As a general rule, Bush is expected to be strong in the south, southwest, and mountain and prairie west. Kerry looks to be strong in the northeast, upper Midwest, and along the Pacific coast. I don't see any state further west than New Mexico or Colorado being a major decisive factor. It is already assumed that California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii will all go for Kerry, while Alaska will go for Bush.
Colorado could prove to be the most controversial this time, but only if everything falls right. There is an initiative on the Colorado ballot to award its electoral votes proportionally, instead of awarding all nine of them to the winner, as it does now. If passed, this would go into effect immediately with this election. Since the race in Colorado is expected to be close, the results of this measure would effectively take four electoral votes away from the winner of the state and give them to the loser. Therefore, if the measure passes and the candidate who wins Colorado loses the election by less than nine electoral votes, the measure will have cost that candidate the election. Obviously, a major legal battle would ensue if that happened.
One final item to watch for on election night is the battle for control of the House and the Senate. The Republicans currently hold a slim margin in both houses. Several key wins, or "pick-ups," by the Democrats could turn things around in their favor in one house or possibly both. Conversely, some pick-ups by the Republicans could increase their margin in one or both house. Key races that could go either way will be monitored closely throughout the evening.

About the Author

Terry Mitchell is a software engineer from Hopewell, VA. He operates a website, http://www.commenterry.com, on which he posts commentaries on various subjects such as politics, technology, religion, health and well-being, personal finance, and sports. His commentaries offer a unique point of view that is not often found in mainstream media. Mr. Mitchell is also a trivia buff.

Digg del.icio.us Blink Stumble Spurl Reddit Netscape Furl

Article Source: http://www.articles2k.com

Top Politics Articles
1). Apologize for what? By : Terry Dashner Apologize for What�Terry Dashner��Faith Fellowship Church PO Box 1586 Broken Arrow, OK 74013Why should we apologize for being A
2). School Prayer, Right Or Wrong By : David G. Hallstrom, Sr. In the Bill Of Rights, the First Amendment to the Constitution, titled "Freedom of Religion, Press, Expression" states the following: "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.
3). Six Thought Provoking Questions By : Steve Gillman Thought provoking questions usually put forth a certain viewpoint, if only because they inherently challenge the accepted one. However, they don't require you to agree with that viewpoint, and a question is just a question. We'll each have different answers to the following, despite their provocative intent. Thought Provoking Questions - Politics 1.
4). The problem with "Fad" diets By : Paul Duxbury Fad diets are well known about their promise of bringing some instant weight loss. First of all you should pay your doctor a visit before starting an
5). The Rising Risk of a Terrorist Attack - Could It Happen Today? By : Paulo You�ve read about it, you�ve seen it: terrorist attacks on trains, in nightclubs and the worst terrorist attack in U.S history on September 11th in New York City. But will the next terrorist attack strike even closer to home � your own hospital�s emergency room. Dr. Paulo J. Reyes, a First Responder in California, ER Doctor, and author of the fiction thriller, Sledgehammer fears there exists a clear and present danger today and has written a book on the possibilities of a biochemical attack with smallpox.
6). Is the Media Blocking the Message of American�s who Don�t Support Israel? By : Murad Ali The strong U.S. support for Israel is daunting to most Muslims. A poll conducted by the LA Times indicates that in the recent assault of Israel against the Lebanese that 43% of Americans believe the attack was justified and not harsh in its treatment of the Lebanese people (Wallsten & Ghlert, 2006). Yet the study also showed that 44% of Americans feel that the war was either not justified or that the Israeli response was excessive.
7). Katrina and the Amazon Drought By : Eduardo Reisinho The Katrina hurricane, the Central America tropical storms and their lethal effects, the intense drought in the Amazon basin with abnormal and not entirely known consequences... The gods of nature seem angry with the Americans. America is under pressure.
8). Love Prisons (from Prison Series) By : Ed Howes The American criminal justice system is not appropriately named because it meets justice to criminals. It is appropriately named because the justice
9). Obit. By : The Indy Voice A popular political party that rose to tremendous power in the 20th century, the Republican party redefined the nation's political agenda and dramatic
10). Feeling Squeezed by Political Correctness By : Terry Mitchell I'm starting to feel squeezed by all the political correctness being imposed on us by both the Left and the Right. Both sides are constantly trying to

New Politics Articles
1). Equal Rights Includes Homosexuals By : Tom Baker Massachusets is considering a Contsitutional Amendment to ban gay marriage. This is another attempt to legalize discrimination under the thin guise of "democracy."
2). How to Master the Art of Influence � Washington Style By : Harrison Monarth Copyright 2006 Harrison Monarth Congressman Patrick Kennedy, Representative of the People of the 1st District of Rhode Island, proved his mastery of influence with the use of a powerful influence strategy just this weekend, after crashing his car into a guard rail near the Capitol building in the very early morning hours. The influencing strategy Patrick Kennedy employed is called "Self-Disclosure".
3). Boots on the Moon - Lunacy Run Amuck By : John Woolf Why would we spend an estimated $104 billion (that's billion with a 'B') to go back to a dead world when ours is dying? It seems no one can come up with a compelling reason for NASA to repeat the "been there- done that" Apollo project of the 60's and 70's that President Bush has envisioned. In fact, we have been told by NASA to think of this as "Apollo on steroids.
4). Neo-Containment for a Nuclear Iran By : Jason Vines As anyone who has opened a newspaper or watched the news over the past few years knows, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been pursuing nuclear capability. Iran�s government insists its only goal is to develop nuclear power plants that would not threaten anyone. The United Nations, though, is concerned Iran might instead covet nuclear weapons. The United States is convinced that is the case.
5). The Sales Boom in Diesel Motorhomes Defies the Economic Forecasts By : David C Skul Thor Industries Chief Executive Wade Thompson, whose business is the globe's largest allocator of diesel pusher motor coaches and travel trailers, is looking forward to the holiday ramble industry's overall product shipments to ascend in 2005 for the fourth straight yearly performance period. Thompson and chief executives of three rivals pronounced they are projecting to quest after extra product delivery staff and originate industrial facilities to deal with rising demand.
6). Solving the Immigration Problem: By : Charles Read Nothing President Bush said last night (5/15/06) will have any real impact on illegal immigration. I hate to criticize the President but that�s my professional opinion. I have several payroll companies that prepare payroll for businesses around the country. Immigration, legal and illegal, is driven by the opportunities offered in this country. Those opportunities exist because we have the �Three Rules of Wealth� as I use to call them when I taught High School.
7). Intellectual Property - Engaging with China By : Paul Ward China is well entrenched in the global marketplace, but with Chinese piracy reported at 90 percent, it's the third least friendly country for protecting intellectual property (IP). China's accession into the World Trade Organization started four years ago. With this commitment to regulatory and economic restructuring, China has indeed been a country of economic opportunity for multinational corporations.
8). The Great Debate By : Triston Huntsmin If you are anything like me, the smallest decisions can quickly become material for the greatest debates of your life. You can turn the tiniest molehill of an issue into a huge mountain of a decision just by sitting down and analyzing too much. Sound familiar? Have you ever gotten weighed down in trying to make small decisions of little consequence and had trouble keeping perspective? I definitely have.
9). Iran Builds Support Among Muslim Nations By : Murad Ali The U.S./Israel coalitions have been at odds with the Iranian government over Iran�s nuclear program. Diplomatic efforts have soured over the U.S. Israeli belief that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons. Iran contends that the nuclear program is to make energy and resents any interference from countries deemed hostile to their cause. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad states that he is willing to talk about the program to anyone except Israel who has keeps �bombs over our head�.
10). Simple Solutions to Global Problems? � Tai Chi & Qigong By : Bill Douglas Copyright 2006 Bill Douglas According to modern medical research between 70 and 85% of all illness leading people to doctors is caused by stress (Kaiser Permenente twenty year study). The United States annual health care costs exceed one-trillion dollars each year. This means that effective stress management techniques, if provided to people en masse through education, business, healthcare, etc.

� 2006 articles2k.com - Privacy Policy